In a year when almost any Republican candidate could have beaten Hillary Clinton to become president of the United States, somehow the Republican party nominated the one candidate who, if he could win, simply won’t let himself win.
It’s as if running for president has been nothing more than free publicity for whatever TV show Donald already has planned… with no intention of winning the election. It would almost be a cruel joke on him if he accidently won the election. “What? Now I have to be president for four years? I had this great TV show all lined up and now I have to run a country instead? You gotta be kidding me! Do they really think I am going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it? This country must really hate Hillary because I did almost everything I could to lose that election!”
And it’s not like Hillary hasn’t done what she could do to lose the election either. It seemed that Hillary had a rather large lead. Unlike previous elections, having a large lead this year does not mean more voters like you better than the other candidate. It just means fewer voters abhor you less than the other candidate. The majority of Americans dislike BOTH candidates.
However, in this past week, news about an FBI probe of Hillary’s questionable emails has narrowed the gap such that Trump could pull what one would now have to call an “upset.” Because of the way in which the electoral college is structured, we would predict that Hillary will prevail, but caution everyone to never count Donald out.
We have never heard so many people say, “If (either of these candidates) gets elected, I’m leaving the country.” Which begs the question, to which piece of paradise in the world are you going to go? Virtually every developed civilized nation on the planet has its own share of problems, and its own cast of deplorable characters running the show.
This country has survived worse, and it will survive four years of Hillary or four years of Donald. It might be a little bruised and beaten… a black eye here, a broken hip there… but it will survive.
However, it MUST STOP THERE! If the winner of this election ends up being president for eight years, America learned NOTHING from this presidential campaign.
Like the drug addict or alcoholic, changing behavior never seems necessary until you hit bottom. I think it is safe to say that the Republican nomination procedure hit a bottom this year. But many addicts hit bottom after bottom (DUIs, loss of job, divorce, etc.) without changing behavior. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican party would resort to the same procedures in order to select the 2020 best candidate and expect different results.
The Democrats didn’t fare any better. The fact that Hillary was seriously challenged by a candidate with a socialist agenda attests to the disdain the general public has for her.
We get communications everyday regarding the markets and the “uncertainty” of who is going to win the election. What will the markets do if Donald wins? What will the markets do if Hillary wins?
As we have stated ad nauseam (ad nauseam seems to be an appropriate phrase to use during this presidential campaign), the president gets way too much credit when economies and stock markets are good and way too much blame when they aren’t. There are much greater global economic forces at work such that it is folly to try to assign any kind of correlation between the sitting president and unemployment, GDP, the S&P 500 or Industrial Production.
If there is some sort of significant sell-off by panicky investors on Wednesday, Boyer & Corporon Wealth Management is standing by, hoping to find opportunities to invest some of the cash we have sitting on the sidelines.
Although the U.S. stock market is not grossly expensive, it is not that cheap either. We would welcome any kind of decline since it is always better to pay less than more.
We are already seeing declines in pharmaceuticals/biotechs in anticipation of a Hillary victory. Twenty-four years ago, she proclaimed a war on health care costs, particularly pharmaceuticals. And that was when she was First Lady! Her tune hasn’t changed. However, we think her election may already be baked into the lower prices.
And if Donald is elected? Who knows? We feel multi-nationals (Deere, Coca-Cola, Merck, etc.) might sell off initially because of his stance on foreign trade. Once Donald is confronted with the disastrous results of such a stance, he will probably relent somewhat. We might view a decline in those stocks as an opportunity to invest.
Ironically, markets have been having a rather non-descript year. I say ironically because the beginning of 2016 was anything but non-descript (see Worst Start Ever! And Blame China.)
Including that inauspicious beginning, the S&P 500 is up just under 6%, the bond market 5% and the All World Index (Ex. U.S.) is up just over 4%.
Could this be the calm before the storm? We are betting it is the calm before the cloudy skies. Four years of perpetually cloudy skies.
This information is provided for general information purposes only and should not be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance of any market results is no assurance of future performance. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.